sMMArt Money: UFC 167
It’s the twentieth anniversary of the world’s preeminent MMA promotion, and the UFC brass have assembled a more-than-adequate card for your viewing pleasure. In this installment of sMMArt Money, we break down the betting lines on the five main card fights of UFC 167.
FLYWEIGHTS
Tim Elliott [10-3-1 MMA] -155
Ali Bagautinov [11-2 MMA] +125
Elliott lost a decision to heavy-handed John Dodson, but has since decisioned Jared Papazian and Louis Gaudinot, the latter in impressive fashion. But Bagautinov , yet another tough-nosed Russian, is on a 9-win streak, including finishes in his last four outings. A deservedly tight line on this fight, with Elliott a slight favorite.
PREDICTION: Bagautinov by submission, Round 1.
TIP: Bet moderately on Bagautinov.
WELTERWEIGHTS
Josh Koscheck [17-7-0] +105
Tyron Woodley [11-2-0] -135
A very interesting match-up here. Koscheck seems to be on the down-slope of a storied career, suffering a brutal TKO at the hands of Robbie Lawler. But prior to that, he put up a very competitive fight against Johnny Hendricks and defeated both Mike Pierce and Matt Hughes. Woodley, too, has been spotty in his last few outings. However, his vicious KO of Jay Hieron shows how easily this man can stop a fight. The odds here are razor thin, but Woodley is the one with more to gain from this fight.
PREDICTION: Woodley by KO, Round 2.
TIP: Bet moderately on Woodley.
WELTERWEIGHTS
Rory MacDonald [15-1-0 MMA] -400
Robby Lawler [21-9-0 MMA] +300
Rory the patient tactician vs. Robby the headstrong brawler. Sound familiar? That’s because this match-up might prove very similar to the MacDonald-Ellenberger snoozer at UFC on Fox 8. Expect Lawler to look to close the distance and land a sledgehammer, while MacDonald keeps him at bay with crisp jabs and a variety of kicks. MacDonald knows that he has to shine a bit more brightly than in his last outing to secure his spot in the title hunt. And, although Robbie has been crushing opponents recently, he’s only 4-4 in his last eight.
PREDICTION: MacDonald by decision, Round 3.
TIP: Bet heavily on MacDonald.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS
Rashad Evans (18-3-1) -200
Chael Sonnen (28-13-1) +160
This could be fight-of-the-night between these two friends and prime-time players. Though Chael crumpled at the hands of both Anderson Silva and Jon Jones, he looked damn impressive in his guillotine submission of Shogun Rua. Rashad handled Jones better, but swooned against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Nonetheless, his convincing decision over Dan Henderson showed that Rashad’s still got the speed and pop to make a mark in this division. Rashad could end this fight with one strike, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which ground-fighting Sonnen can end it early.
PREDICTION: Evans by decision, Round 3.
TIP: Bet moderately on Evans.
Georges St. Pierre (24-2-0) -250
Johnny Hendricks (15-1-0) +195
There’s a reason that GSP has been wearing the welterweight strap since 2007, and that’s because he is one of the best in the world at keeping his opponent at a distance and sniping with strikes when the time is right. Nick Diaz, Carlos Condit, Josh Koscheck, Dan Hardy, Jon Fitch – all of these men love to engage, but were rendered impotent by the champion’s precision and technical superiority. What makes Johnny so dangerous is his ability to close the distance and threaten his opponent with striking and wrestling attacks simultaneously. But whether he can stage such an assault against GSP is a major question mark. On the other hand, the champ does not have the greatest chin in the sport, having been finished by Matt Serra and rocked by Carlos Condit.
PREDICTION: St. Pierre by decision, Round 5.
TIP: Bet lightly on St. Pierre.
